Impasse can scuttle RP talks with MILF, benefit militants

A new impasse could scuttle years of peace talks between the Philippine government and Muslim separatists and reverse recent gains against al-Qaeda-linked militants in the violence-torn south.

Rebel negotiators refused to attend a planned meeting in December, accusing the government of going back on previously settled points.

The breakdown threatens negotiations that have brought the two sides close to agreement on creating an autonomous Muslim territory in the southern Mindanao region, the traditional homeland of Muslims in the Philippines.

If the impasse drags on, the more militant groups in Mindanao could exploit it to win new recruits and derail the peace process, analysts and negotiators warned.

Muslims make up about 5 percent of the predominantly Christian country's population of 90 million. They are a minority even in Mindanao following decades of Christian migration encouraged by the government.

Some rebels went to Afghanistan in the 1980s to join Islamic groups fighting the Soviet occupation. They formed links with radicals there and organized a militant group, Abu Sayyaf, after returning to the Philippines.

Abu Sayyaf and its Indonesia-based ally, Jemaah Islamiyah, have been blamed for bombings and kidnappings in the south and Manila. One bomb set off a fire on a ferry in Manila Bay in 2004, killing 116.

Jemaah Islamiyah, which US and regional intelligence officials say has received funding from al-Qaeda, has sent operatives to the Philippines to recruit members and train them in bomb-making.

The government is negotiating with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a mainstream rebel organization that signed a 2003 ceasefire with government troops.

A peace deal would not necessarily stop Abu Sayyaf from launching attacks, but a government negotiator said it would help isolate the group as well as militant factions within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

"I think if you are able to come out with a good peace agreement, a good end or closure to these negotiations ... the peace process itself is counterterrorism," said Rodolfo Garcia, head of the government negotiating team.

Mohagher Iqbal, chief negotiator for the MILF, said his group wanted to end the fighting too. "We will be the first to stop the violence because, after all, we would be the first to be affected," he said.

Though the talks, brokered by nearby Malaysia, have stalled before, the latest hurdle has thrown the negotiations into their most serious crisis yet.

Both sides had announced in November that they had reached consensus on several crucial points, including the concept of creating a Muslim region, its boundaries and how it would be governed. But in December, the rebels said, the government shifted its position at the instigation of higher-ups in Manila.

"If they continue to renege on the consensus points, we will stop talking," Iqbal said. "The ball is within the court of the Philippine government."

Neither side would discuss specifics of the dispute. Government negotiators only acknowledged differences in the way they presented the consensus points. One point of contention has been the government's insistence that the final agreement conform to the Philippine Constitution.

Presidential peace adviser Jesus Dureza said last month that the government may ask Congress to amend the constitution to create the autonomous Muslim territory in Mindanao.
Rebel negotiators fear any deal could be watered down if it goes through Congress or is vetted by voters, who would have to approve any amendment to the constitution.

Garcia, the government negotiator, expressed concern that younger rebels may be enticed to join more radical factions of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.